Derren Brown: Archive
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From: Jim Byrne
Date: Sat Jan 11, 2003 12:03pm
Subject: Re: [Derren Brown] do John Edward and Collin Fry use cold reading???
http://salon.com/people/feature/2002/06/13/probability/index.html
John Edward, host of the television series "Crossing Over," is just short
of creating an empire of Oprah or Martha Stewart proportions. His show, a
half-hour exhibition of his self-professed ability to communicate with the
dead and predict the future, now airs on CBS and Sci-Fi at least 10 times a
week. Author of three books (his second, "One Last Time," was a New York
Times bestseller), subject of an HBO documentary, guest of "Larry King Live"
and "The Crier Report," and celebrated counselor to a host of B-list
celebrities (Jennifer Beals, Anne Rice, et al.), Edward has gained
surprising credibility.
He has managed to sell his talents via audiotapes ("Developing Your Own
Psychic Powers," yours for $59.95), a quarterly newsletter, internationally
touring seminars (sold out), private readings (the wait list is now three
years) and personally endorsed products like the John Edward Pink Rose
Appreciation Pin, "a symbol to express love."
But Edward, a 32-year-old native of Long Island, has not fessed up to all of
his talents. As it happens, he is more than a psychic medium; he is also a
master statistician. The smoke and mirrors behind his self-professed ability
to communicate with the dead is a simple application of the laws of
probability. Basically, if you keep trying something whose results are
independent, your odds of getting your desired result increase.
For example, the odds that you will roll a 3 on any one roll of a six-sided
die are 1 in 6, about 17 percent. After six throws, the chance that you will
have thrown at least one 3 has increased to about 67 percent. After 12
throws, it's nearly 90 percent.
Lucky for Edward, most audience members on his television show are too
hopeful and trusting to pull out a calculator and expose the charlatan
behind the prophet.
The temptation to believe that Edward, a self-professed medium, can connect
with the deceased and foretell future events is great, especially for those
who are vulnerable and in need of comforting. Many members of the show's
audience, hoping to connect with deceased loved ones via Edward, are
mourning recent losses. They come with the expectation, no doubt, that being
"read" by Edward on national television will yield healing revelations from
those who have "crossed over." Inevitably he reports that the dead are at
peace, happily and lovingly watching over those left behind on Earth.
Since Edward is playing a numbers game, there are, of course, rules to
follow. "Crossing Over" audience members are coached even before they enter
the television studio on how to behave during taping. The rules for being in
the audience are stated on the show's Web site and begin with the following:
"Have no expectations. You may REALLY want to connect with one specific
relative ... but there is a good chance they may not come through. Keep your
mind open and welcome whoever comes through during the reading. We don't
want you to be disappointed or broken-hearted if your chosen loved one doesn
t come through. As John says, 'Please do not put earthly expectations on a
heavenly experience.'"
So each audience member becomes, in effect, a throw of the die, and each of
Edward's guesses is the number he's trying to roll. Symbolically translated,
where P = probability: P(Aunt Mary comes through) + P(Grandma's first poodle
comes through) + P(Jen's ex-brother-in-law comes through) + P(a person who
will eventually die comes through prematurely) + P(an unknown ancestor comes
through) + P(Edward can talk himself out of anything) = Damn close to 100
percent.
Seems fair enough. But apparently still too risky for Edward. The rules on
the Web site continue:
"Validation is important! Since John does not know your friends and
relatives, it is very important you give feedback. A simple nod of the head,
a yes or no answer goes a long way in a reading. Please don't give more
information than John asks for."
Translation: John will throw out guesses until you indicate he has hit on
something, and then he'll run with it. Should his ramblings contradict your
reality, do not correct him.
Even more precious is his allowance for any and all errors, which he
disguises as a modest admission of mortality in his book "Crossing Over: The
Stories Behind the Stories." Edward writes, "I'm always saying that it is
not the spirits who are getting it wrong; it's more likely that I am
misinterpreting their messages." You have to trust a guy so willing to admit
his own failings.
In his book, Edward offers an example of his powers that is so dubious I
thought he was joking. As it goes, once he told a "sitter" (the person being
read) that someone in her life was doing something with wallpaper; it was
odd, Edward recalls, that it had no meaning for her that day. Until, lo and
behold, a few months later, the sitter's sister-in-law changed the border in
her bathroom! Add up the probabilities of the hundreds of independent events
involving wallpaper and the sitter's friends and family over the course of
months and the realization of his prophecy is nearly inevitable. The art of
intelligence insulting has rarely known such mastery.
Adding to the speciousness of the whole operation is that the wallpaper
example was handpicked for inclusion in the book; consider how many failed
readings were excluded. The careful plucking of successes from a mass of
attempts is a technique used in Edward's television show as well. The
creation of each half-hour episode requires six hours of taping. Do the math
Yet it works. I prefer to believe Edward's fans are not unintelligent, but
simply in need of something to believe in, to feel good about, or to relieve
the anxiety of what cannot be controlled. If he is fulfilling these needs, then
in some ways, his gig is legit. Just like playing the lottery, if you really
want to believe, you are better off not knowing the odds.
